Socio-affective skills and early academic disengagement in higher education: a sequential mediation model of emotion regulation and academic self-efficacy

Karen Jimenez Arriaga, David Aarón Miranda García, Diego Yael Gonzalez Gomez

Student disengagement in higher education is increasingly conceptualized as a gradual, psychologically mediated process that affects academic functioning and persistence, rather than a discrete academic decision. Within this framework, early academic disengagement (previously conceptualized as silent dropout processes) refers to early psychological disengagement that precedes formal withdrawal. This study examined the psychological pathways linking socio-affective skills to early academic disengagement risk through emotion regulation and academic self-efficacy. A cross-sectional design was employed with a sample of 942 first-year undergraduate students enrolled at a private university in Mexico. Participants completed standardized measures of socio-affective skills, emotion regulation difficulties (DERS), academic self-efficacy, and early academic disengagement risk. Structural equation modeling was used to examine a theory-informed sequential mediation framework. Results indicated that socio-affective skills were indirectly associated with lower early academic disengagement risk through reduced emotion regulation difficulties and higher academic self-efficacy, with a significant total indirect effect (−0.32, 95% CI [−0.38, −0.26]) and a significant sequential indirect effect (−0.05, 95% CI [−0.08, −0.03]). The final model demonstrated good fit ( CFI = 0.95, RMSEA = 0.038) and explained 47% of the variance in early academic disengagement risk, with the direct effect reduced but remaining significant, indicating partial mediation. These findings suggest that emotional and motivational variables are meaningfully associated with early academic disengagement risk. These findings may inform future efforts aimed at early identification and intervention strategies in higher education.