arxivcs.LGcs.ITcs.MAcs.SIeess.SY2026-06-26
Estimation-Prediction Tradeoff in Causal Probabilistic Temporal Graphs
Temporal link prediction (TLP) is typically evaluated by predictive performance on unseen edges, but this criterion can conflate predictive accuracy with recovery of the underlying causal mechanism. In stochastic models, Fisher information governs the Cramér--Rao (CR) bound on pa…