Temporal link prediction (TLP) is typically evaluated by predictive performance on unseen edges, but this criterion can conflate predictive accuracy with recovery of the underlying causal mechanism. In stochastic models, Fisher information governs the Cramér--Rao (CR) bound on parameter estimation error: higher Fisher information permits more accurate parameter recovery. We show that, under comonotonicity conditions between Fisher information and entropy, binary logistic models exhibit an estimation--prediction tradeoff: regimes with higher Fisher information, and hence smaller CR bounds, also have higher irreducible predictive entropy. To study this tradeoff in TLP, we introduce a probabilistic causal generator for temporal graphs with transient edges and known ground-truth causal structure, and validate the phenomenon empirically.
Learning-based separation assurance for small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS) achieves near-zero collision rates in simulation, but assumes accurate position and velocity information from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). This assumption fails in urban environments, wh…
Multi-agent large language model (LLM) systems often rely on verifier and critic agents to suppress hallucinations, but verification is delayed. During this delay, false claims can propagate through the agent network. We model this process as delayed consensus on a graph with gro…
Online latent state estimation constitutes a fundamental challenge within the artificial intelligence field, serving as a foundational tool for diverse applications, including sequential decision making, anomaly and change-point detection. In this paper, a novel online distribute…
Classical rate-distortion (RD) theory has long established the fundamental limits of lossy compression by quantifying the minimum number of bits required to represent a source under a prescribed distortion constraint. However, widely used distortion measures such as mean-squared…
We study the optimal transport of optimally controlled agents from a compactly supported absolutely continuous source to a discrete target measure. The ground cost for the transport is induced by the optimal cost of the agents' motion. When this ground cost satisfies the twist co…
A growing number of techniques leverage the spatial structures that underlie many real-world datasets. Despite these advances, the complementary task of estimating spatial structures and understanding their role within these techniques has often been overlooked. In neurophysiolog…