Conformal Constraint Tightening for Chance-Constrained Motion Planning with Unknown Dynamics

Shubham Natraj, Bruno Sinopoli, Yiannis Kantaros

Motion planning algorithms compute control sequences that drive autonomous robots to goal regions while avoiding unsafe states. Existing methods, from sampling-based planning to deep reinforcement learning, typically provide task-completion guarantees only with respect to a nominal model or simulator, which may be invalidated when the true dynamics are unknown or difficult to model accurately. This letter addresses this limitation for systems with unknown dynamics and an available approximate nominal model, contributing a planner-agnostic constraint-tightening procedure that equips existing planners with a probabilistic task-completion guarantee on the true system. We leverage conformal prediction to provide a probabilistic bound on the nominal-to-true trajectory deviation over a distribution of planning problems. We tighten the planning constraints using that bound, and show that solving the tightened problem under the nominal model is a sufficient condition for solving the original problem on the true system with a prescribed probability. We validate the theoretical guarantees empirically and demonstrate substantially improved task completion relative to nominal-model planning.