AI-Driven Prediction of Bitumen Content in Paving Mixtures: A Hybrid Machine Learning Model Applied to Salalah, Oman

Khalid Ahmed Al Kaaf, Paul C. Okonkwo, Said Mohammed Tabook, Thamir Nasib Faraj Bait Alshab, Awadh Musallem Masan Al Kathiri, Ahmed Mohammed Aqeel Ba Omar

Sustainable pavement solutions that lessen the dependency on virgin materials are required due to mounting environmental and economic pressures. Although recycled asphalt concrete (RAC) has structural and environmental advantages, binder heterogeneity and non-linear material interactions make it difficult to predict the ideal bitumen content in RAC mixtures. This study predicts the bitumen content of asphalt mixtures infused with RAC by combining sophisticated machine learning (ML) with traditional laboratory testing. While this study combines AI-driven predictions with experimental insights to create a state-of-the-art framework for sustainable pavement engineering, 780 data points were obtained from the preparation and testing of three mixtures (0%, 30%, and 50% RAC) for volumetric and mechanical characteristics. Controlled Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (CARIMA), Swapped Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), radial basis function artificial neural network (RBF), bagging (BAG), multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network, and boosting (BOT) ensembles were among the models created. BAG-CARIMA-LGM is a new hybrid model that combines logistic probabilistic generalization, ensemble variance reduction, and time-series forecasting. Higher predictive accuracy and resilience across different RAC levels were attained by the hybrid BAG-CARIMA-LGM model, which performed noticeably better than standalone algorithms. The findings demonstrated improved Marshall stability and controlled flow along with a progressive decrease in mean bitumen content as RAC increased. While 50% RAC with rejuvenators maintained durability and structural integrity, the 30% RAC mixture produced the most balanced performance. The model’s capacity to manage non-linear interactions, volumetric variability, and aging effects was validated by statistical analyses. The BAG-CARIMA-LGM hybrid model optimizes RAC incorporation in asphalt mixtures, supports circular economy goals, and improves technical accuracy. The results point to a revolutionary route towards intelligent, environmentally friendly road systems that support international sustainability objectives.