A Novel Approach for Predicting the Survival of Colorectal Cancer Patients Using Machine Learning Techniques and Advanced Parameter Optimization Methods

Andrzej Woźniacki, Wojciech Książek, Patrycja Mrowczyk

Background: Colorectal cancer is one of the most prevalent forms of cancer and is associated with a high mortality rate. Additionally, an increasing number of adults under 50 are being diagnosed with the disease. This underscores the importance of leveraging modern technologies, such as artificial intelligence, for early diagnosis and treatment support. Methods: Eight classifiers were utilized in this research: Random Forest, XGBoost, CatBoost, LightGBM, Gradient Boosting, Extra Trees, the k-nearest neighbor algorithm (KNN), and decision trees. These algorithms were optimized using the frameworks Optuna, RayTune, and HyperOpt. This study was conducted on a public dataset from Brazil, containing information on tens of thousands of patients. Results: The models developed in this study demonstrated high classification accuracy in predicting one-, three-, and five-year survival, as well as overall mortality and cancer-specific mortality. The CatBoost, LightGBM, Gradient Boosting, and Random Forest classifiers delivered the best performance, achieving an accuracy of approximately 80% across all the evaluated tasks. Conclusions: This research enabled the development of effective classification models that can be applied in clinical practice.