Energy Consumption Prediction for an Electric Vehicle Using Machine Learning: A Comparative Study of Regression, Ensemble, and LSTM-Based Models

Juan Diego Valladolid, Juan P. Ortiz

Accurate energy consumption prediction is fundamental for enhancing range estimation and trip planning in battery electric vehicles (BEVs) under real-world conditions. This study develops a route-level benchmark utilizing 1 Hz data acquired via ECU/OBD-II interfaces (CAN 500 kbps) across ten diverse real-world driving routes. The input feature set comprises vehicle speed, longitudinal acceleration, estimated motor torque, road altitude, and accelerator pedal position. Ground truth energy consumption was derived from battery voltage and current, integrated via the trapezoidal rule. We performed a comparative analysis between five memoryless regressors (FNN, SVR, GPR, QRNN, and Bagged Trees) and three sequence models (LSTM, GRU, and BiLSTM) trained on 20-second temporal windows. The results indicate that the GRU model achieved the highest overall performance (mean RMSE = 0.1142 kWh, R2 = 0.9545 and MAE = 0.072 kWh), while Bagged Trees emerged as the most robust static model (mean RMSE = 0.1587 kWh). Temporal models outperformed static ones on routes with high dynamic variability, whereas Bagged Trees excelled in five specific scenarios. These findings provide a controlled within-route benchmark for time-resolved cumulative energy estimation and highlight the need for chronological and cross-route validation before drawing deployment-oriented generalization claims.