The impact of climate physical risk on smart agricultural production efficiency

Qian Zheng, Junhua Zhang, Jianhui Yin, Zongfei Liu

Global climate change is intensifying, while agriculture is undergoing rapid digital transformation. Against this background, Climate Physical Risk ( CPR ) has become an important exogenous shock affecting Smart Agricultural Production Efficiency ( SAPE ). Using panel data for 177 prefecture-level cities in China from 2000 to 2023, this study uses an SBM-DEA model to measure SAPE. It applies Moran’s I to test spatial correlation and uses a two-way fixed-effects Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to identify the spatial effects of CPR on SAPE . Rural Human Capital Upgrading ( RHU ), Farmers’ Economic Resilience ( FER ), and Water Resource Endowment ( WRE ) are then introduced to examine their moderating roles in the relationship between CPR and SAPE . The results show three main findings. First, CPR has significant spatial effects on SAPE . It produces a negative local direct effect and positive spatial spillovers in neighbouring regions, suggesting that its influence is not a one-way inhibition but a compound process in which local shocks and regional adaptive adjustment coexist. Second, the effect of CPR on SAPE is regionally heterogeneous. The negative effect is stronger in central and western China and weaker in eastern China. Third, RHU , FER , and WRE all exert positive moderating effects and weaken the inhibitory effect of CPR on SAPE to different degrees. By examining both spatial effects and adaptive moderation, this study extends research on the relationship between CPR and SAPE . It also provides empirical evidence for understanding the evolution of SAPE under CPR exposure.