Advanced Digital Tools for Data-Informed and Performance-Driven Design: A Review of Building Energy Consumption Forecasting Models Based on Machine Learning

Andrea Giuseppe Di Stefano, Matteo Ruta, Gabriele Masera

Cities and buildings represent the core of human life, the nexus of economic activity, culture, and growth. Although cities cover less than 10% of the global land area, they are notorious for their substantial energy consumption and consequential carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. These emissions significantly contribute to reducing the carbon budget available to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change. In this context, the designers’ role is crucial to the technical and social response to climate change, and providing a new generation of tools and instruments is paramount to guide their decisions towards sustainable buildings and cities. In this regard, data-informed digital tools are a viable solution. These tools efficiently utilise available resources to estimate the energy consumption in buildings, thereby facilitating the formulation of effective urban policies and design optimisation. Furthermore, these data-driven digital tools enhance the application of algorithms across the building industry, empowering designers to make informed decisions, particularly in the early stages of design. This paper presents a comprehensive literature review on artificial intelligence-based tools that support performance-driven design. An exhaustive keyword-driven exploration across diverse bibliographic databases yielded a consolidated dataset used for automated analysis for discerning the prevalent themes, correlations, and structural nuances within the body of literature. The primary findings indicate an increasing emphasis on master plans and neighbourhood-scale simulations. However, it is observed that there is a lack of a streamlined framework integrating these data-driven tools into the design process.