Driver Injury Prediction and Factor Analysis in Passenger Vehicle-to-Passenger Vehicle Collision Accidents Using Explainable Machine Learning

Peng Liu, Weiwei Zhang, Xuncheng Wu, Wenfeng Guo, Wangpengfei Yu

Vehicle accidents, particularly PV-PV collisions, result in significant property damage and driver injuries, causing substantial economic losses and health risks. Most existing studies focus on macro-level predictions, such as accident frequency, but lack detailed collision-level analysis, which limits the precision of severity prediction. This study investigates various accident-related factors, including environmental conditions, vehicle attributes, driver characteristics, pre-crash scenarios, and collision dynamics. Data from NHTSA’s CRSS and FARS datasets were integrated and balanced using random over-sampling and under-sampling techniques to address severity-level data imbalances. The mRMR algorithm was employed for feature selection to minimize redundancy and identify key features. Five advanced machine learning models were evaluated for severity prediction, with XGBoost achieving the best performance: 84.9% accuracy, 84.85% precision, 84.90% recall, and an F1-score of 84.87%. SHAP analysis was utilized to interpret the model and conduct a comprehensive analysis of accident features, including their importance, dependencies, and combined effects on severity prediction. This study achieved high accuracy in predicting accident severity across all levels in PV-PV collisions. Moreover, by integrating the SHAP model interpretation method, we conducted detailed feature analysis at global, local, and individual case levels, thereby filling the gap in PV-PV accident severity prediction and feature analysis.